The power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
To create the widest possible path for , the Big 12 needed Texas Tech to in their Saturday showdown.
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But not like that. Definitely not like that.
The and walked away with a 29-7 victory that cast doubt on BYU’s playoff chops and increased the chances of the Big 12 sending just one team, its champion, into the CFP.
Our forecast is, of course, based on the most likely results over the final three weeks of the regular season and championship weekend.
One upset in the SEC or Big Ten could change the CFP calculus for the Big 12, opening doors that appeared closed or squashing scenarios that seemed possible.
But let’s be clear: It all starts with the SEC and Big Ten.
Their influence over every aspect of the CFP is even greater today than it was last year, when the Big 12 sent one team, Arizona State, to the playoff and two-loss BYU was left home.
After all, the SEC spent the offseason pushing for changes to the selection process that emphasize schedule strength and quality wins and limit the impact of quality losses.
And the SEC got its way.
In August, the CFP announced the following:
”Changes for the upcoming season include enhancements to the tools that the selection committee uses to assess schedule strength and how teams perform against their schedule.
”The current schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents.
”An additional metric, record strength, has been added to the selection committee’s analysis to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule. This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team.
”Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”
In a nutshell, the adjustments reward conferences with quality depth. And no conference has more quality depth than the SEC, which placed nine teams in the CFP selection committee’s initial rankings last week.
Last year, a collection of three-loss SEC teams was ranked below teams from the ACC (SMU) and Big Ten (Indiana) that played weaker schedules and had fewer quality wins — but also fewer losses.
That’s unlikely to happen this season with the changes to the selection process and the lurking pressure to reward the SEC’s depth. It’s the most powerful conference in the sport with the most influential commissioner, Greg Sankey, in college athletics.
It did not spend all that time and energy pushing for changes to then not receive the benefit of the doubt from the committee.
Which brings us back to BYU and the lopsided loss at Texas Tech.
Every team has a bad day, but bad days in the Big 12 and ACC are more harmful than bad days in the SEC and Big Ten.
If the Cougars and Red Raiders meet again in the Big 12 championship — they remain the favorites to reach Arlington — then another loss to Texas Tech would, in our view, doom BYU.
The Big 12 needed an ultra-competitive, well-played showdown in Lubbock.
It needed the losing team to look like it belongs in the CFP.
Instead, the Cougars were completely outclassed, to the point that a second loss to Texas Tech very well could knock them below all the two- and three-loss teams from the SEC, which will have the aforementioned advantage in the recalibrated selection process.
The lopsided affair in Lubbock didn’t doom the Big 12 to a single CFP bid — not with a month remaining and seven at-large bids available.
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton prepares to throw a pass during the first half of an NCAA game against BYU, Saturday in Lubbock, Texas.
But that was hardly an ideal result for the Big 12’s pursuit of that coveted second bid.
To the power rankings ...
1. Texas Tech (9-1/6-1)
Result: beat BYU 29-7
Next up: vs. UCF (1:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Not even the top teams in the SEC and Big Ten want to face Texas Tech’s defense in a single-elimination setting. But they would all want to face Texas Tech’s offense, especially in the Red Zone. (Previous: 2)
2. BYU (8-1/5-1)Result: lost at Texas Tech 29-7
Next up: vs. TCU (8:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The Cougars have no time to recover from the bludgeoning in Lubbock with TCU (6-3) and Cincinnati (7-2) up next. One more loss, and they are at risk of not qualifying for the conference championship. (Previous: 1)
3. Utah (7-2/4-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Baylor (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Utah’s best path into the CFP is through the automatic qualifier pool (as the Big 12 champion). BYU’s loss makes that scenario less likely because of Utah’s poor position in the tiebreaker process. (Previous: 3)
4. Arizona State (6-3/4-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. West Virginia (11 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Something for the back pocket: ASU’s early-season loss at Mississippi State, which is near the bottom of the SEC standings, could come into play if the selection committee assesses the Big 12’s at-large contenders against teams from the SEC. (Previous: 4)
5. Cincinnati (7-2/5-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Arizona (10 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: If the Bearcats win out — they host the Wildcats and BYU, then finish at TCU — a berth in the conference championship awaits. (Previous: 5)
6. Houston (8-2/5-2)
Result: won at UCF 30-27
Next up: idle
Comment: Our dream matchup for the conference title, Houston vs. Cincinnati, which would be the most Big 12 pairing ever, is on life support, unfortunately. (Previous: 6)
7. Iowa State (6-4/3-4)
Result: won at TCU 20-17
Next up: idle
Comment: Notable that a team deeply depleted in the secondary would collect its first victory in six weeks over an opponent coached by Air Raid disciple Sonny Dykes. (Previous: 8)
Arizona wide receiver Gio Richardson (5) lets go a yell after his catch-and-run picked up a first down in the fourth quarter of their Big 12 game, November 8 Tucson, Ariz.
8. Arizona (6-3/3-3)
Result: beat Kansas 24-20
Next up: at Cincinnati (10 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: The bowl berth clinched in the final minute Saturday afternoon is just the third for Arizona in the past decade — hence the postgame celebration. (Previous: 9)
9. TCU (6-3/3-3)
Result: lost to Iowa State 20-17
Next up: at BYU (8:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: With trips to BYU and Houston, plus Cincinnati at home in the finale, there’s a decent chance the Horned Frogs don’t win another game. (Previous: 7)
10. Kansas State (4-5/3-3)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Oklahoma State (10 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: If the Wildcats don’t secure a sixth victory with lowly Oklahoma State and Colorado on the schedule, something will have gone very, very wrong. (Previous: 10)
11. Baylor (5-4/3-3)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Utah (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: We are monitoring Dave Aranda’s seat heat in Waco. It’s lukewarm now, but could turn hot by the end of November with Utah, Arizona and Houston in succession. (Previous: 11)
12. Kansas (5-5/3-4)
Result: lost at Arizona 24-20
Next up: idle
Comment: Lance Leipold took a barrage of criticism on social media for attempting the field goal on fourth-and-2 in the final minutes in Tucson. But knowing quarterback Jalon Daniels wouldn’t have been allowed to participate (because of injury substitution rules), Leipold made the right call. (Previous: 12)
13. West Virginia (4-6/2-5)
Result: beat Colorado 29-22
Next up: at Arizona State (11 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: After ASU comes Texas Tech, meaning the Mountaineers assuredly will finish the first season of Rich Rodriguez’s second stint with four victories. Not bad. Not bad at all. (Previous: 13)
14. UCF (4-5/1-5)
Result: lost to Houston 30-27
Next up: at Texas Tech (1:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Good chance the Knights will be playing for a bowl berth when they visit Provo for the season finale. That could make things interesting if BYU has a berth in the conference championship at stake. (Previous: 14)
15. Colorado (3-7/1-6)
Result: lost at West Virginia 29-22
Next up: idle
Comment: Deion Sanders was never the genius the fawning media made him out to be in 2023-24; nor is he as overmatched as Colorado’s current struggles suggest. He’s a solid coach. Nothing more, nothing less. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-8/0-6)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Kansas State (10 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: We are a tad surprised the Cowboys haven’t taken at least one conference opponent to the wire — all six losses have been by at least 17 points. Maybe that will change this week. (Previous: 16)
