This isn鈥檛 2014. The winner of the Territorial Cup will not represent the South Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
This isn鈥檛 2016 either. Arizona and Arizona State already have secured bowl berths.
So what is at stake then, in the 91st meeting between the Wildcats and Sun Devils, besides year-long bragging rights?
A lot. For both sides.
Arizona has a chance to finish its bounce-back season strong. The winner will finish in second place in the Pac-12 South, far exceeding preseason expectations. An ASU victory could save Todd Graham鈥檚 job. And a monster performance by Khalil Tate could get him back in the running for a trip to New York to participate in the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
Here鈥檚 a closer look at each of those themes heading into the latest intrastate showdown Saturday afternoon at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe:
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For the record
Any rational UA fan would have been thrilled with a seven-win regular season had you presented that option a year ago. Or even two months ago.
The Wildcats won three games last year. They were sitting at 2-2 through September, with an uncertain QB situation and a cloudy future.
But everything changed in October. Tate took over at quarterback, and Arizona took off.
An exhilarating four-game winning streak lifted the Wildcats to 6-2. They reappeared in the AP Top 25 and debuted in the College Football Playoff rankings.
At that point, seven wins sounded 鈥 meh. It would mean losing three of the final four games 鈥 not necessarily a step backward, but certainly not another step forward.
Unfortunately for Arizona, that scenario is squarely in play. The Wildcats have dropped two of their past three.
Another defeat wouldn鈥檛 erase all the good stuff that preceded it 鈥 just like last year鈥檚 upset win in the Territorial Cup didn鈥檛 erase all the bad stuff. But it would leave UA fans, coaches and players wondering what might have been.
鈥淒oes it take off some of the luster for them? Sure,鈥 said Pac-12 Networks analyst Yogi Roth, who will call Saturday鈥檚 game. 鈥淒oes it hurt them in in-state recruiting? Maybe. But I think there鈥檚 some really good juice around this team.鈥
On second thought
Finishing in sole possession of second place behind a USC team predicted by many to make the College Football Playoff would be a major achievement for either school.
Again, you have to go back to the offseason, when expectations were low 鈥 bordering on non-existent.
Not only did the media pick Arizona to finish last in the Pac-12 South in the annual preseason poll, the Wildcats received the fewest votes of any team. ASU was picked to finish fifth.
The media ended up being wrong, of course (no surprise there). But the poll results symbolized the rapid fall of two programs that were dueling for a title-game berth just a few years earlier.
ASU hasn鈥檛 finished above .500 since going 10-3 in 2014. Arizona fell from 10-4 to 7-6 to 3-9.
鈥淵ou鈥檝e gotta remember, they hit reset on the coaching staff two years ago,鈥 Roth said of the Wildcats. 鈥淭hey hit reset on the program with 61 freshmen (entering this season). This almost like a rebirth.
鈥淓ight-and-four looks better; you have a chance to get to nine wins. But as long as they don鈥檛 get smoked, there鈥檚 still juice. They鈥檙e extremely legitimate.鈥
Second place in the South is something that can be used in recruiting. It鈥檚 a top-line item in every offseason promotional campaign.
A lot can happen between now and next fall. But Roth said he probably would pick Arizona to win the South next year if USC quarterback Sam Darnold enters the 2018 NFL draft.
ASU鈥檚 immediate future is a little murkier.
Graham a goner?
The Arizona Republic began its Territorial Cup coverage this week with a story stating that Graham is 鈥渃oaching for his job鈥 against Arizona. A Republic columnist wrote that it鈥檚 time to move on, win or lose Saturday.
A Twitter poll asked whether ASU should fire Graham. Thirty percent of respondents said yes; 48 percent said no; 22 percent said it depends on what happens vs. the Wildcats.
Is it fair to base a coach鈥檚 fate on one game? Is it accurate to say that鈥檚 what鈥檚 really going on here?
Graham 鈥 like counterpart Rich Rodriguez 鈥 is about to conclude his sixth season. As such, his tenure can be divided neatly into two halves.
The Sun Devils went 28-12 in Graham鈥檚 first three years 鈥 following four straight seasons under Dennis Erickson of .500 records or worse.
Entering Saturday, ASU is 17-19 over the past three years. A loss to the Wildcats would drop the Sun Devils to 6-6 鈥 and leave open the possibility of a third straight losing season.
Graham declined to comment about his job status earlier this week. But subsequent comments 鈥 e.g., 鈥淭here is nothing more miserable than losing this game鈥 鈥 illustrate how much the result of the Territorial Cup means to him and his program.
鈥淥ne of the things you鈥檙e measured by at Arizona State is whether you get it done in this game,鈥 Graham said. 鈥淭hey obviously are very aware that we didn鈥檛 get it done last year. We obviously don鈥檛 want to be on that side of it.
鈥淭hese guys understand how important that is. It鈥檚 probably the No. 1 way you鈥檙e going to be measured as a Sun Devil football player.鈥
And as a Sun Devil coach.
Heisman Hail Mary
The Heisman Trophy is Baker Mayfield’s to lose. The Oklahoma quarterback has a substantial lead in the latest Heisman Watch poll on .
Tate rose to third in that poll last week before falling to fifth after a subpar performance at Oregon. He always was a long shot to win the award. Now he probably has no shot.
But the race for the runner-up spots remains wide open. Tate still could make a push to be among the finalists. That would be a significant accomplishment for the UA program; no Wildcat ever has participated in the Heisman ceremony.
It would take a Herculean effort for Tate to re-grab the attention of the Heisman electorate. Games on Pac-12 Networks don鈥檛 get as much national exposure. Tate also won鈥檛 have the benefit of participating in a conference championship game.
Ironically, for Tate and the Wildcats to be at their best, he has to fight the temptation to play hero ball. Roth will keep a close eye on how Tate runs the offense in a loud, hostile environment.
鈥淭his is a game where he鈥檚 going to have to be vocal,鈥 Roth said, 鈥済etting guys aligned right, making sure the little details are handled.鈥
Tate never has been about stats anyway. The only one he cares about is wins.
His fellow Wildcats feel the same way. Especially this week.
鈥淚t鈥檚 different,鈥 UA senior defensive tackle Marcus Griffin said. 鈥淟ike Coach (Rodriguez) said, every game matters 鈥 but this game matters more.鈥
