The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Could we see Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi on the hot seat this year? It feels like the unraveling of the past three Ducks teams has been rooted in defensive woes, and you have mentioned the lack of experience on the entire staff in general. — Will D
A: This is typically the time of year that Hot Seat assessments are published for head coaches, and there are plenty in tenuous positions as the 2025 season begins.
Among the Pac-12 legacy schools alone, three coaches are in must-win mode (Arizona's Brent Brennan, Cal's Justin Wilcox and USC's Lincoln Riley) and two more are entering seasons that could very well define their tenures (Oregon State's Trent Bray and UCLA's DeShaun Foster).
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But upon seeing the question appear on the Hotline radar, we opted for a slightly different approach:
Which coordinators from Pac-12 legacy schools are under enhanced pressure to perform in 2025?
Lupoi is certainly in the list and offers an entry point.
First, let's acknowledge the complexity inherent to this exercise: It's often difficult to assess the performance of a coordinator whose head coach has expertise on the same side of the ball.
That is precisely the case with Lupoi, given that Oregon coach Dan Lanning is a former defensive coordinator and played an instrumental role in shaping the unit's philosophy and playbook.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning talks with defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi before the game against Southern California in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Eugene, Ore.
But Lupoi is responsible for the hour-to-hour operations of the defense and the majority of the playcalling. Whether he calls every play in every game, we cannot say — and it's largely irrelevant to this discussion.
The question is on point: Oregon's defense, despite its stockpile of NFL draft picks, has been sliced and diced in critical games the past few years, by Washington in 2022-23 and by Penn State and Ohio State in 2024.
Of course, those were deeply talented, extremely well-coached opponents. We're comparing Lupoi (and Lanning) to the best of the best. Plenty of opposing coaches were unable to slow UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr., for instance, or Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Is Lupoi on the hot seat at the moment? Not in our view.
Is there a scenario in which his job security turns precarious by the end of November? Possibly.
And in that regard, he's not alone. Four other coordinators are facing what we would describe as above-average pressure this season, although the circumstances vary:
— Cal OC Bryan Harsin. The former Boise State and Auburn head coach was a desperation hire after yet another uneven season for Cal's offense. So, yes: The heat is primarily on Wilcox, who enters his ninth season. But the spring exodus of talented players suggested Harsin's style wasn't popular, and could serve to limit the grace period usually afforded (by fans) to new coordinators.
— Colorado OC Pat Shurmur. How will the Buffaloes fare without Shedeur Sanders throwing to Travis Hunter? To a large extent, that depends on the offensive line — and Shurmur, not position coach Gunnar White — is ultimately responsible for a unit that has been unwaveringly subpar for two seasons.
— Oregon State OC Ryan Gunderson. The Beavers struggled last season, averaging 24 points per game, and failed to generate consistent production from any of their three quarterbacks. That should change in 2025 with the arrival of Maalik Murphy from Duke. If the passing game doesn't improve, Gunderson — to a greater degree than Bray, whose background is on defense — will have to explain the shortcomings.
— UCLA OC Tino Sunseri. Another instance of an inexperienced head coach searching for answers after a difficult first season. The Bruins were inept in key areas (running game, Red Zone conversions, scoring), leading Foster to fire Eric Bieniemy and take his chances with Sunseri, who worked for Indiana's Curt Cignetti but has not been a full-time playcaller. It was a risky move for a program struggling for traction in its new conference. Sunseri's impact must be immediate.
Do you think the change to Oregon’s future series against Utah State opens the door for the Civil War to live on? — @jimmy0726
A: For those who missed the news, the Ducks and Aggies agreed to cancel two of three games scheduled for later in the decade. At this point, the only matchup on the books comes in 2029, in Eugene.
Our initial reaction was exactly as you noted: Oregon now has openings in 2027 and 2028 to play Oregon State and renew the rivalry. The Ducks and Beavers are scheduled to collide this fall but not in 2026 — and there are no games under contract beyond this season, either.
Now, the Ducks have windows for the Civil War every fall starting in ’27.
That doesn't guarantee annual meetings in Eugene or Corvallis, but it's a hopeful sign for anyone who believes — as we do — that the rivalry is important for the health of the sport on the West Coast.
And the same goes for the Apple Cup, which is scheduled annually through 2028.
Both rivalries face long-haul challenges, especially if the Big Ten agrees to a crossover series against the SEC that gobbles up one of the three non-conference windows available for Oregon and Washington each year.
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti has stated the conference will support a 5-11 playoff format if the SEC plays nine conference games — the same caveat that Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has voiced. Why is this not being reported? — Jon J
A: Our sense is that Yormark and Petitti have slightly different views of the situation.
Petitti sees the ninth conference game for SEC teams as essential: The Big Ten won't support the so-called 5+11 model, which features five automatic qualifiers and 11 at-large bids, unless the SEC makes the change.
Yormark wants the SEC to add a ninth game to level the competitive playing field, but he supports 5+11 regardless.
The Big 12 opposes the 4-4-2-2-1 model, with 13 automatic qualifiers, as firmly as the Big Ten opposes the 5+11 model with the SEC staying at eight conference games.
In other words, the SEC schedule is not a deal-breaker for Yormark. It is for Petitti.

Big Ten Conference commissioner Tony Petitti speaks during a news conference after meetings with the Southeastern Conference, Oct. 10, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn.
And both commissioners are wholly justified in their positions.
A playoff model that's heavy on at-large bids would confer enormous advantages to SEC teams playing one fewer conference game than their Big Ten counterparts.
And a playoff model that grants the Big Ten and SEC double the number of automatic bids than the Big 12 would immediately codify Yormark's conference as inferior, thereby severely damaging the brand.
It's being reported that CBS is still interested in the Mountain West. (So much for the Pac-12 narrative that they took away the Mountain West's main partner.) Shouldn't the MW have an easier time getting a new media deal based on the fact that they are renewing a current deal? — @NateJones2009
A: Generally speaking, yes: It's far easier to renegotiate deals with existing partners than to start from scratch, as the rebuilt Pac-12 has done with CBS (and is doing with other networks).
However, the Mountain West has undergone immense change, losing five football schools and adding two (UTEP and Northern Illinois). We suspect any agreement with CBS or Fox for the 2026 contract cycle is tantamount to an entirely new deal.
And despite media reports indicating the Mountain West will renew its partnership with CBS, we'd advise a morsel of skepticism until a deal is announced.
In realignment, nothing is done until it's done. And that goes double if the conference is involved in multiple lawsuits with more than $100 million at stake.
The Mountain West has expressed unrelenting confidence in its membership structure for 2026 and beyond. That sentiment is not shared by neutral observers, who believe the conference is facing an ongoing existential threat until a media deal is formalized.
The Pac-12 is considered a Power Five conference when it comes to government and legal matters. What leverage would that give them to be a power conference for all matters?— @CelestialMosh
A: No leverage whatsoever.
The Pac-12's position as a named defendant in the House lawsuit necessitated that it work with the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC to settle the case and create the post-House world of revenue sharing and NIL oversight.
But it's no longer a so-called power conference and, frankly, has no hope of regaining that status.
For College Football Playoff matters, governing authority lies with the Big Ten and SEC — they are merely required to consult with the ACC and Big 12 on key issues.
For college football calendar issues (i.e., the transfer portal, signing day, etc.), the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 have weighted voting power.
And those four leagues, along with the Big East, possess outsized influence on key men's basketball matters, as well.
The Pac-12 has been reduced to a secondary player, and that status isn't changing.
Why is Washington State lagging so far behind some new Pac-12 schools in selling season tickets? — @Lionsmaul
A: We don't have updated numbers for the Cougars or any of the Pac-12's incoming schools. The last report to come across the Hotline's radar, from July, indicated WSU's season ticket sales were slightly behind last year's pace.
The Apple Cup is a massive draw on the 2025 home schedule. From there, the schedule rapidly loses luster. The Cougars could draw decent crowds for Oregon State and San Diego State (and perhaps for Idaho, as well). But it's difficult to envision much excitement for Toledo and Louisiana Tech.
We'll take a look at attendance for WSU, Oregon State and all the Pac-12 legacy schools after the season.
What letter grades do you give NIL, the transfer portal and other new systems right now? And why? — @MrEd315
A: The Hotline is reserving judgment on the post-House settlement issues for at least nine months — specifically, we're giving revenue sharing and NIL oversight a chance to incubate until the spring.
We had no issues with the previous version of NIL, in which booster collectives handed out cash in a pay-for-play fashion. If an oil billionaire wants to plow $25 million into Texas Tech's roster, that's his choice.
But when combined with the 24/7/365 transfer portal, unlimited player movement and immediate eligibility, the situation was unsustainable.
College football needs a few guardrails and, in fact, is working toward exactly that: A small group of administrators is attempting to overhaul the calendar and create dedicated transfer windows.
It's beyond ridiculous that the industry's versions of free agency can unfold during the football and basketball postseasons.
Do Stanford and Cal regret not staying with the rebuilt Pac-12? — @stoproof
A: Anytime the Bay Area schools hit a rough patch, this question surfaces. It's understandable, to an extent, given the awkward nature of their membership in the ACC and the everlasting hope, for some fans, that the Pac-12 eventually will reform.
The latest news of a negative nature: Stanford is laying off 363 employees across the university, including more than a dozen in athletics. (An exact number is elusive, as is often the case in personnel matters.)
Our answer now is unchanged from prior months: Yes, there is regret — deep regret — that the Pac-12 did not hold together, but neither university is second-guessing its decision to join the ACC.
The Cardinal and Bears wanted no part of the next iteration of the Pac-12 and were drawn to membership in a conference with strong academics and Olympic sports.
You can debate the merits of the strategy back in the late summer of 2023.
But from their perspective, the move into the ACC was a no-brainer — and that feeling hasn't changed an iota.
Is Washington facing a no-win situation with quarterback Demond Williams Jr.? If he struggles, the team struggles. If he succeeds, he’s poached by an SEC or premier Big Ten program. — @vince_per
A: We don't view the situation in such dire terms.
Yes, UW's task becomes vastly more difficult if Williams doesn't consistently play at a high level this season. As a threat with his arm and legs, the sophomore is essential to success in Jedd Fisch's scheme.
That said, a breakout season won't necessarily end with Williams getting poached by one of the bluest blue bloods in the Big Ten or SEC.
For one thing, UW possesses the resources to make a competitive offer. With their wealthy donor base and the mega-corporations in the Seattle area, the Huskies are positioned to thrive in the era of revenue sharing and true NIL if the constituents are thoroughly motivated.
But there's a second element that cannot be overlooked: Williams' relationship with Fisch.
He grew up in the Phoenix area and signed with Arizona in Dec. '23, then followed Fisch to Seattle a month later. And he was content with a limited role in the 2024 offense, suggesting a long-haul faith in the development plan.
Although there are zero guarantees in the portal era, that multi-year bond likely will keep Williams on the roster even if he emerges as one of the most coveted quarterbacks next winter.